India's cotton production in 2022/23 expected to be less than 30 million bales

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has again lowered the country's cotton production forecast for 2022/23 to 29.835 million bales (170 kg/pack). Last month CAI had to face criticism from industry groups who questioned the output cut. The CAI said the new estimate was based on the advice of the 25 members of the Crop Committee, who received data from 11 state associations.

CAI expects cotton export price to rise to Rs 75,000 per 356 kg after cutting cotton production forecast. But downstream industries don't expect a big rise in cotton prices, especially the United States and Europe, the two biggest buyers of apparel and other textiles.

CAI President Atul Ganatra said in a release that the agency had cut its 2022/23 production forecast by 465,000 bales to 29.835 million bales. Production in Maharashtra and Telangana may be further reduced by 200,000 bales, in Tamil Nadu by 50,000 bales and in Odisha by 15,000 bales. CAI did not revise production estimates for other major producing regions.

CAI said committee members will closely monitor cotton processing volumes and arrivals in the next few months, and if there is a need to increase or decrease production estimates, this will be reflected in subsequent reports.

In its March report this year, CAI forecast cotton production at 31.3 million bales. Estimates made in the February and January reports were 32.1 million and 33 million bales, respectively. After several downward revisions last year, India's cotton production was finally estimated at 30.7 million bales.

CAI said that from October 2022 to April 2023, the cotton supply is expected to be 26.306 million bales, including 22.417 million bales of arrival, 700,000 bales of imports, and 3.189 million bales of initial inventory. Consumption is projected at 17.9 million bales, and export shipments through April 30 are projected at 1.2 million bales. As of the end of April, cotton stocks are expected to be 7.206 million bales, of which textile mills have 5.206 million bales, and CCI, Maharashtra Federation, and other companies (multinational corporations, traders and ginners, etc.) hold the remaining 200 Thousand packs.

It is estimated that by the end of the current 2022/23 season (October 2022-September 2023), the total cotton supply will reach 34.524 million bales. These include 31.89 million bales of beginning stocks, 2.9835 million bales of production, and 1.5 million bales of imports.

Domestic consumption for the current year is projected at 31.1 million bales, unchanged from the previous forecast. Exports are projected at 2.0 million bales, down 500,000 bales from the previous estimate. India's cotton exports last year were estimated at 4.3 million bales. Carryover stocks are currently projected at 1.424 million bales.