In 2022, although foreign economic inflation and frequent interest rate hikes affect consumption, China's textile and clothing industry chain has strong competitiveness, and exports have achieved stable growth for six consecutive years. Although the growth rate of retail sales in China has slowed down, with the overall recovery of the supply chain and the improvement of consumption expectations, there is a large space for domestic consumption growth. At present, China is building a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. In 2023, the textile and clothing industry will also usher in a new situation of expected and realistic development and the resonance and linkage of domestic and international markets.
China's textile and clothing exports will grow steadily in 2022
The fluctuation characteristics of textile and clothing exports in the past decade show that the export situation in 2022 is good, with January, March and June-August exports at the highest level in the same period of the past decade. The highest value of US $33.22 billion appeared in July, and the lowest value of US $17.789 billion appeared in February, with an amplitude of US $15.431 billion. Although the export volume of textile and clothing rose and fell back in 2022, the average value of the whole year was raised because it was at a 10-year high for nearly half of the year, and achieved growth for six consecutive years. According to customs data, China's textile and clothing exports in 2022 totaled US $323.345 billion, up 2.64% year on year.
In 2022, the domestic retail sales of China's textile and clothing will not be as good as the export sales, and the trend will continue to be low before and high after. In 2022, retail sales were higher than the 10-year average for most of the time, and only fell below the average in April and November. The highest value was 132.1 billion yuan in December, and the lowest value was 79.11 billion yuan in April, with an amplitude of 52.99 billion yuan. Although China's retail sales rose sharply in 2022, they basically fluctuated around the 10-year average, while the base in 2021 was high, and the domestic demand in 2022 continued the decline trend in the past five years. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, needles and textiles will reach 1300.3 billion yuan in 2022, down 6.5% year on year.
China's domestic and foreign markets are expected to develop jointly in 2023
In 2022, under the background of global interest rate increase, global textile and clothing supply contraction and economic inflation significantly impacted the global supply chain, and China's textile and clothing exports could still achieve stable growth, reflecting the integrity, flexibility and resilience of the industrial chain. The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 12th showed that the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States in December 2022 fell 0.1% month-on-month and rose 6.5% year-on-year. This is the sixth consecutive month that US inflation data has declined. The updated data of the CME "Federal Reserve Observation" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February is 99.8%. With the marginal weakening of international macro pressure, it is expected that China's textile and clothing exports will remain stable.
Domestically, China's domestic demand market is expected to gradually recover in 2023. With the return of the supply chain of China's textile industry to normal and the implementation of the main work policy of expanding domestic demand set by the Central Working Economic Conference, consumption recovery has become the focus of the market. In the short term, as expectations continue to improve, cotton, chemical fiber and other textile raw materials accelerate destocking, and prices have risen to varying degrees. According to the survey, by the end of January, the price of polyester filament (Zhejiang POY150D/48F) rose by 5.56% over the same period last month, cotton (3128B nationwide) rose by 4.98%, and polyester staple fiber (1.4D in East China × 38mm) rose 4.59%, viscose staple fiber (Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.5D × 38mm) rose 1.54% to achieve a "good start" in 2023.
In general, China is building a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. In 2023, the textile and clothing industry will also usher in a new situation of expected and realistic development, and the resonance and interaction of domestic and international markets.