In November, the international environment became more complex and severe, external demand contraction further revealed, the domestic epidemic rebounded in a large area, demand contraction, supply shock, the expected weakening of the "triple pressure" increased, the economic operation constraints are obvious. From the industry, the price of raw materials continue to maintain weak, enterprise procurement to just replenish the main. Due to the domestic epidemic, the production of enterprises slowed down, market purchases and sales remained slow, product inventories gradually increased, the operating pressure continued to increase. From the terminal point of view, demand has not improved significantly, for the future market, enterprises are cautious attitude.
In November, the prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry was 47.15, down 0.19 from October, lower than the critical point, and the industry prosperity level was slightly lower than last month. From the perspective of sub indexes, the seven sub indexes that constitute China's cotton textile boom index are all below the critical point.
Raw material purchasing index
In November, the raw material purchasing index was 45.73, down 1.62 from October. From the perspective of market price, the domestic cotton futures price rose slightly, while the spot price kept falling and the decline widened; In terms of chemical staple fiber, the price of polyester staple fiber continued to fall, and the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable after the fall in the first ten days, with the decline narrowing month on month. Specific data: the average monthly spot price of domestic 3128 grade cotton was 14354 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 809 yuan/ton, or 5.33%; The average monthly price of 1.4D direct spinning polyester is 7308 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 522 yuan/ton, or 6.66%; The monthly average price of mainstream viscose fiber is 13031 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton month on month
3.16%。 From the perspective of purchase volume, due to the limited export of Xinjiang cotton, cotton spinning enterprises are short of cotton for production. At the end of the year, due to the timeliness of cotton quotas, the purchase of imported cotton has increased. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the chemical staple fiber market, and enterprises purchase on demand, with a small overall purchase volume.
Raw material inventory index
In November, the raw material inventory index was 47.63, up 0.26 from October, indicating a slight improvement in prosperity. In the same month, the price of raw materials was weak, the downstream market demand was weak, the epidemic situation was widespread in many places, and the start-up of enterprises was limited. Enterprises focus on ensuring smooth capital chain, comprehensively control budget management, reduce raw material inventory, and reduce capital occupation. Some enterprises organize procurement in the form of production based on sales and purchase based on production to ensure smooth operation. From the sub index, the cotton inventory index was 47.33, down 0.05 from October; Non cotton fiber inventory index was 47.94, up 0.58 from October.
In November, the production index was 47.99, up 0.34 from October, lower than the critical point, and the prosperity degree improved slightly. In the same month, the production of the enterprise recovered slowly, and the startup level was not high. The opening rate of the spinning factory was maintained at 60% to 70%, and the opening rate of the weaving factory was about 50%. Although some enterprises started at full capacity, they mainly produced conventional varieties. In November, the equipment opening rate index of cotton textile enterprises was 47.25, up 0.12 from October. In terms of output, the yarn output index was 48.6, up 0.17 from October, and the fabric output index was 48.92, up 1.12 from October.
Product Sales Index
In November, the product sales index was 45.41, down 0.97 from October. From the perspective of market prices, due to the continued downturn in the market and cautious downstream purchases, the center of gravity of gauze product transaction prices continued to move down, and the decline deepened. In that month, the monthly average price of 32 pure cotton carded yarns was 22,185 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 899 yuan/ton, or 3.9%, and the monthly average price of pure cotton gray cloth (32*32130*702/147" twill) was 4.52 yuan/m. The month-on-month decrease was 0.3 yuan/meter, a decrease of 6.22%. From the perspective of market sales, some domestic textile trade centers are temporarily closed, logistics and transportation are also under control, enterprises have insufficient follow-up orders, and gauze product shipments are slow. In November, the yarn sales volume index was 46.72, a decrease of 1.72 from October; the cloth sales volume index was 48.4, an increase of 1.54 from October.
Product Inventory Index
In November, the product inventory index was 49.29, down 0.95 from October, falling back below the critical point. As the purchasing power of consumers declines, the "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve" expected by the market have not met expectations. In order to maintain normal operation, enterprises produce inventory products, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. From the perspective of the sub-items that constitute the product inventory index, the yarn inventory index is 49.37, a drop of 1.58 from October, a large drop; the cloth inventory index is 49.16, a drop of 0.01 from October.
In November, the enterprise operating index was 46.34, a decrease of 0.93 from October, and the prosperity degree further declined. Affected by weather, epidemic control and other factors, the export of Xinjiang cotton is blocked, the delivery capacity of automobile transportation is limited, the requirements are cumbersome, and the use of cotton by cotton spinning enterprises is restricted. Downstream consumption continued to be sluggish, orders were obviously insufficient, and there were many cancellations. At the same time, in order to stabilize employees and fulfill social responsibilities, the company will continue to maintain a certain opening, and its operations will continue to be under pressure. In November, the main business income index was 46.45, a decrease of 1.0 from October; the total profit index was 46.23, a decrease of 0.85 from October.
Business Confidence Index
In November, the business confidence index was 47.27, an increase of 2.6 points from October, indicating that the business climate has improved. In that month, the international environment was complicated and evolving, the world economy continued to weaken, the purchasing power of global textiles and clothing declined, and the downward pressure on overseas orders increased. Domestically, the short-term impact of the epidemic is obvious, and the market demand is insufficient. With the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures and the gradual implementation of various policy measures to stabilize the economy, the momentum of economic recovery will continue to increase. Enterprises expressed a cautious attitude towards the market outlook.
Explanation: The prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry is collected from nearly 500 cotton textile enterprises across the country. It is calculated by referring to the formulation method of the national manufacturing PM and other indexes by weighting multiple main indicators. When the index is higher than 50, it means that the cotton textile industry The level of prosperity this month is better than that of last month, and if it is lower than 50, it means that the level of prosperity this month is not as good as that of last month.